With a mere five weeks to go, the 2004 presidential election is looking more and more like a Bush sweep. Things can change, but Kerry himself seems to think he will lose (hence, the bitter, petty remarks about PM Allawi last week). Let's take a look at the factors which could shift the election in Kerry's favor, as well as the indicators which will give us a good idea of who's actually ahead:

 

 

1) Fahrenhate 9/11 is coming out on DVD. Big deal. Although this proves another Moore lie (he said this summer that he was going to wait until AFTER the election to release it on DVD), it's not going to affect many undecided voters. Most of the crap in the movie has already been thoroughly debunked. The only people who would be influenced by this tripe are the hardcore America haters (and they've already seen it at the theater). I'm sure rentals will be brisk, but that's mostly due to smart people (who didn't want to line Moore's pockets) waiting for the DVD. Hell, I may even rent the thing... This won't help Kerry.

 

2) The release of Team America - World Police. The new Trey Parker/Matt Stone movie is set for release sometime in mid-October. True, these guys pretty much nail everybody, but word has it that this movie will really skewer the likes of Moore (and the terrorists). The South Park Movie was hilarious, and this one should be good as well. Will it sway any voters? Nah.

 

3) The Debates. I realize that the "word on the street" is that Kerry is an excellent debater. I'm calling bullshit to that one. They're just trying to raise the bar for Kerry (and lower it for Bush). Bush beat Gore in at least two of their debates, and he'll at least "break even" with Kerry. I don't care how well Kerry did against William Weld (nobody does). Bush is the master of "rope-a-dope" where he makes his opponents (and supporters) underestimate him. I'm not falling for it again. I expect Bush to WIN the debates, but even if he breaks even, he's not going to lose any votes. If he points out Kerry's self-contradiction and asshole behavior, he'll goad him into showing his true colors (like he did with Gore), which will turn even MORE swing voters against Kerry. It is possible that Kerry will trip Bush up, or Bush could make some critical mistake, but it's even more likely that Kerry will do so.

 

4) Terror Attacks. I've had a sinking feeling for over a year now (well before the Spain bombing) that Al Qaeda would actually strike ON Election Day (not before it). The message would be that THEY are in control, and instead of influencing our elections, they would try to scare the hell out of us and make us feel unsafe. Al Qaeda doesn't need to attack the U.S. to influence our election. They're using their U.S. operatives and their overseas allies (Diana Kerry, for one) to do their dirty work for them. Either way, any terrorist attack will only piss us off (after that comes the internment camps). I'm not saying I WANT them, I'm just saying people will be screaming for them. We're not the Spanish, OK?

 

5) The Economy/Gas Prices, etc. - Unless gas jumps to $4.00/gallon, all economic indicators show that the economy is strong. Kerry can try to talk it down all he wants, but he's just pissing in the wind.

 

6) The Has-Been Series - The most overrated singer in U.S. history (Bruce Springsteen) and other former superstars will be throwing concerts in major swing states. Unfortunately for them, many of the "tossup" states in July are now firmly in Bush's camp. I'm not one of those people who says that singers and actors should just "shut up." However, I'll be the first to point out that anyone who takes political advice from the likes of John Goober Melloncamp is a mongoloid of the highest order.

 

 

1) Polls. True, all major polls show Bush with a large-to-small lead, but they change daily. I have very little faith in polls, since they can be easily manipulated. Polls which feature LIKELY voters are the most accurate, but you need to be sure that they have a balanced representation of Republicans and Democrats. The LA Times poll showing Kerry with a 13 point lead over the summer was tilted heavily Democrap. In other words, they surveyed a disproportionate amount of Democrats, which skewed the results. I'm sure the polls showing Bush with an 11-13 point lead were also inaccurate. What isn't skewed, however, is the dislike people have for Kerry. The guy is an asshole, and even the people who are voting for him know this. It's also important to note that most people think that Bush will win (whether they plan on voting for him or not).

 

2) Halloween Mask Sales. It's fun to think of Halloween mask sales as a good barometer for the election. But we all know it isn't true. Some people say that the candidate who sells the most masks wins. However, common sense tells me exactly the opposite. People who support Bush aren't going to wear a Bush mask, and vice-versa. Masks are a way of MOCKING a candidate.

 

Does that mean that you can determine the loser by how many masks they sell? The answer is clearly no. First of all, the side most likely to be nasty and mock someone (the left) would be over-represented. And would their "chimpy" masks count as votes for Bush? They would say so. Besides, many of these people already have Bush masks left over from the last election (which wouldn't be factored in to this year's total). Furthermore, would Herman Munster, Ichabod Crane, Frankenstein, and Wicked Witch masks count as votes for Kerry? It just wouldn't be fair if they didn't.

 

Now that I've gone out of my way to show how mask sales are irrelevant, I'm about to Kerry (self-contradict) myself. There may be one factor which tells us who is likely to win. Look at the Bush mask. Say what you want, but it's a pretty good likeness. If you see someone wearing this mask, you don't have to ask "who are you supposed to be?". Now look at the Kerry mask. Not a very good likeness, is it? Is it because the Chinese slaves who make these masks (and everything else in the world) think all white people look alike? No, because they did a good job with Bush. The only explanation for the John Kerry mask is that nobody thinks Kerry's going to win (not even Kerry's communist allies in China). Why waste money and time making a high-quality mask with a one-year sales cycle? Is there anybody who thinks Kerry's going to win?

 

 

4) The Scholastic Election. OK, I'm getting a bit repetitive here, but I just wanted to remind everybody (once again) that the Scholastic Magazine election should be held soon. This exercise (featuring elementary, secondary, and high school students) has successfully predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1960. Need I say more?

 

Finally, if you really want to wow them at this year's Halloween party, why not go as Kerry's back-stabbing traitor sister Dirty Diana? Here's a photograph of the princess at the most recent Al Qaeda Sleeper Cells for Kerry rally. It shouldn't take too much to re-create the look (and be sure to carry a small Australian flag, a bic lighter, and a plastic knife for stabbing our allies in the back):