10) Gay Marriage – This is not as big an issue as people think. At least, it’s not going to be a big win for Kerry OR for Bush. The Log Cabin Republicans are angry that Bush has called for a constitutional amendment to prevent gay marriage. However, that doesn’t mean they’ll vote for KERRY. All it means is that there’s another group that supported Bush in 2000 which he has alienated/pissed off (welcome to the club). This issue may actually HURT Kerry, in that he may finally be forced to take an unpopular stand on an issue (as Bush has done on many issues). If Kerry doesn’t waffle (and that’s a big IF), he will either say he’s for it (in which case conservative Dems will be angry) or he’s against it (in which case his liberal base will be angry). This issue is a "push" (no pun intended).

9) Bush’s Military Service – This one is a total non-starter. Even if we were to assume that Kerry was John friggin Rambo during his four months in ‘Nam, Bush’s 3 ½ years as Commander-in-Chief dwarf Kerry’s so-called "war hero" status (and sorry if I offended any Casino Americans with the use of the word "chief" – it can’t be helped).

7) Kerry’s Running Mate – This may have a positive impact, seeing how Dick Cheney’s approval ratings are so low. If Bush would have fired him and replaced him with Condi Rice, it wouldn’t matter who Kerry picked (Bush-Rice would be a lock). If Kerry picks Hillary, of course it’s all over (for Kerry that is).

6) The "Tard Factor" – Every four years, the Democrat party goes to great lengths to register "new" voters. For the most part, these are unplugged 34-year-old cretins who’ve never bothered to vote. As a result, there is a huge turnout of idiots who fuck up their ballots. It happens every single election, and it will happen this year. I don’t know if it will be a positive thing for Kerry, but if the people in Florida who wanted to vote for Gore ALL cast their ballots properly, Bush would not have been president.

5) The Economy – The economy has completely turned around. The Clinton-Gore recession is over (as is much of the damage caused by 9/11). The only thing still sluggish is the job market (which is an issue unto itself).

4) Jobs – See, I told you jobs was a separate issue. In any economic recovery, jobs are the last to improve. If even one million new jobs are created between now and election day, Bush will win handily. However, if jobs remain stagnant, he could be in trouble (unless there’s another terrorist attack, and peoples’ attention shifts to security).

3) World Events – For the first time ever, al-Qaida has been able to directly influence an election through a terrorist attack. The Spanish have shown their lack of cajones and pussed out big time by voting in Socialists. Combine that with a castrated U.N. (which has allowed N. Korea and Iran to obtain nuclear weapons) it is a very dangerous world. When people look at Bush vs. Kerry, they are very likely to see Kerry as more of a U.N. sycophant (because he is) and Bush as a more aggressive type. Spain caving-in to al-Qaida has essentially guaranteed there will be several more terror attacks in the world over the next year. When this happens, Bush will RISE in popularity (because, unlike other countries) we don’t sit around in a fucking circle jerk and blame ourselves for other peoples’ bad behavior. We punish THEM. Pretty strange concept, eh?

2) Al Qaida Activity in the U.S. – Then there’s the possibility that al-Qaida will attack America before the election. If this happens, not only will Bush be elected in a landslide (with Cooper coming in a close second), the American citizenry is going to rise up (and it ain’t gonna be pretty, trust me). Oh, and if the military really DOES have bin Laden on a concrete slab somewhere, June would be a pretty good time to bring it out (beer and fireworks sales on July 4th would hit an all-time record).

… and the most important factor is:

1) The Scholastic "Election" – For the past 10 presidential elections (in September), students across America have "voted" in an event sponsored by Scholastic magazine. Without fail, the way the children voted was the way the election ended up going. Are they clairvoyant? No, the answer is simple. The children listen to their parents and end up voting the way their parents do. This is very important to remember. Your children see and hear EVERYTHING (including when you and your spouse talk about which one of you is going to get that tube of Anal Eze from the pharmacist). Be careful.